In 2024, petrol prices experienced fluctuations, ranging from Rs. 247.03 to Rs. 293.94 per liter. At the beginning of the year, on January 1, petrol was priced at Rs. 267.34 per liter. By April 16, the price surged to Rs. 293.94 per liter, before dropping to the year’s lowest of Rs. 247.03 per liter on October 1. As of now, the price stands at Rs. 252.10 per liter.
Global crude oil prices also saw significant variations this year, with the highest price of $91.17 per barrel on April 10 and the lowest at $70.17 per barrel on September 10. At the start of the year, crude oil was priced at $73.58 per barrel, and it remains at the same level currently.
The value of the Pakistani Rupee against the US Dollar also fluctuated in 2024. At the beginning of the year, the dollar was valued at Rs. 281.5, but it has since decreased to Rs. 277.93. The dollar hit its lowest point on August 2, at Rs. 274.53, but has stabilized at Rs. 277.93 as of now.
Potential Petrol Price Reduction
There is a possibility of a Rs. 2 per liter reduction in petrol prices in the coming days. However, High-Speed Diesel (HSD) is expected to see a Rs. 3.62 per liter increase starting January 1, 2025. Sources suggest that while there is no issue with supply and demand in the international market, geopolitical factors, particularly the situation in Syria and the role of new U.S. leadership in handling global challenges, are influencing price changes in petroleum products.
Currently, petroleum premiums stand at $8.69 per barrel, but efforts are being made to bring down petrol prices by more than Rs. 2 per liter. For the next 15 days, petrol is expected to be priced at Rs. 250.20 per liter, while HSD will likely rise to Rs. 259 per liter following the expected price hike.
The price of Light Diesel Oil (LDO) is projected to increase by Rs. 3.30 per liter, while Kerosene Oil is expected to see a Rs. 3.03 per liter rise, bringing its price to Rs. 151.97. Kerosene Oil is also likely to see a marginal increase of Rs. 0.05 per liter, reaching Rs. 161.71.
Global Price Outlook for 2025
The World Bank has forecast that commodity prices, including oil, will fall to their lowest level in five years in 2025, driven by increased production. Despite this, overall commodity prices are expected to remain 30% higher than the five-year average before the COVID-19 pandemic. While individual commodity prices may fluctuate, improved supply is expected to lead to a general decline in prices.
The World Bank also predicts that global daily oil supply will exceed average demand by 1.2 million barrels next year. This situation has only occurred twice before—during the 2020 pandemic shutdown and in 1998, when oil prices were low.
The Bank further notes that this excess oil supply partially reflects changes in China, where increased sales of electric vehicles and liquefied natural gas (LNG)-powered trucks have contributed to a decline in industrial output since 2023.
Additionally, the World Bank expects oil-producing nations, both within and outside the OPEC Plus alliance, to increase production. OPEC Plus itself maintains a significant surplus production capacity of 7 million barrels per day, nearly double the capacity during the pandemic period.
