Risk of catastrophic earthquake increases to 82% in next 30 years, warns research committee
Japan’s government has issued a warning that the likelihood of a “mega earthquake” occurring in the next 30 years has risen to 82%. The prediction, made by a panel of experts, suggests the earthquake could have a magnitude between 8 and 9 on the Richter scale, potentially triggering a massive tsunami, causing thousands of fatalities, and inflicting billions of dollars in damage.
According to the Earthquake Research Committee, the probability of such a powerful earthquake occurring was previously estimated at 74-81% but has now increased to 75-82%. Experts believe the earthquake’s epicenter will be located off the southern coast of Japan, in the Pacific Ocean, near an underwater location known as the Nankai Trough. This area is where two tectonic plates collide, creating the potential for a devastating quake.
The Nankai Trough, a 800-kilometer-long oceanic trench parallel to Japan’s Pacific coastline, is known for the buildup of large amounts of energy as tectonic plates become stuck and then release that energy, resulting in powerful earthquakes.
Over the past 1,400 years, severe earthquakes have occurred in this region roughly every one to two years, with the most recent one recorded in 1946. According to officials from the Earthquake Research Committee, 79 years have passed since the last major earthquake in the Nankai Trough, and the likelihood of another increases by 1% each year.
Government estimates indicate that smaller islands near the coast could be hit by tsunami waves as high as 30 meters, while densely populated islands such as Honshu and Shikoku could face massive waves within minutes of the earthquake’s occurrence.
Experts also pointed out that in 1707, the entire Nankai Trough ruptured simultaneously, causing one of the most catastrophic earthquakes in Japan’s recorded history.
